‘The next decade will decide whether firms become more like the Big Four or develop their own distinct model. They can no longer rely on informal control.’
Laura Empson, Cass Business School
After a decade of upheaval, legal services veterans give their prognosis on what the 2020s will bring
Centre of the cyclone
‘The world is becoming more insecure, more unpredictable, more volatile. Reputation is more fragile, rights and assets are more intangible. Therefore, the role of lawyers is absolutely integral to the business world. In many ways it always has been, but legal issues are much more visibly front of mind today for the boards of major corporates.’
Charles Martin, senior partner, Macfarlanes
Almost equal measures
‘In ten years’ time, I expect firms will be getting towards 40% in terms of female partners, but ideally we should be much more ambitious than that.’
Guy Norman, global head of corporate, Clifford Chance
More of the same
‘The unequalled depth of the US legal market will continue to drive the success of the US firms. Combined with a relatively weak sterling, this will allow the US firms to financially outperform UK peers. This in turn will continue to place pressure on talent attraction and retention.’
James Tsolakis, head of the legal sector, NatWest
Magic what?
‘I don’t think “Magic Circle” means what it used to. Once, when there was a clear difference between what those four or five firms could do compared to other firms, it made sense. Today that difference has narrowed considerably and ten years from now, people will say: “Magic what? What magic do they do?”’
Suhrud Mehta, London co-managing partner, Milbank
History repeating
‘Over the last 30 years, I’ve seen in-house teams grow and shrink, generally in direct correlation with the economy. If we have a recession, you will see the pressure increase on in-house teams. Corporations making cuts generally look at the in-house legal function. There will never be an equilibrium.’
Michael Ward, chief executive and partner, Gateley
New order
‘The era where globalisation was westernisation has ended – we won’t be able to shut out China even if that’s what the US wants to do. China will develop very smart things that we will have need of.’
James Palmer, senior partner, Herbert Smith Freehills
Death of partnership?
‘The key challenge will be whether firms are a partnership or a business. We pride ourselves on partners having a say on major business decisions. The model has plenty of positives, but negatives as well. It’s about leadership through influence rather than command and control.’
Jeremy Hoyland, managing partner, Simmons & Simmons
Unhealthy competition
‘The traditional partnership model has often been called a tournament system. This produces Type A personalities and yet those very characteristics are those the clients are complaining about: “We don’t care you won a competition. We want a level of service that’s based on skillset and this is not being produced by this system.” Traditional law firms make a big investment in people and then lose them if they lose the tournament by not making partner.’
Joe Andrew, global chair, Dentons
Follow the leaders
‘You have to ask what has made law firms so great to this point? It is clearly-articulated professional values. Lawyers know who they are, they take pride in their work and are committed to their colleagues. They’ve had autonomy and the ability to exercise their individual discretion. The post-recession environment has enabled the professionalisation of management and it’s diffuse within these firms. The next decade will decide whether firms become more like the Big Four or develop their own distinct model. They can no longer rely on informal control.’
Laura Empson, professor of management of professional service firms, Cass Business School
Wild predictions
‘Technology is now spoken about in virtually every conversation, both internally and externally. It was a glint in people’s eyes in 2010; now it’s something you’ve got to be clear about. Clients want to know what your tangible strategy is for the future. That said, 2010 wasn’t that long after the financial crash and people foresaw significantly more structural change in the sector than actually occurred, particularly around consolidation.’
Lee Ranson, co-chief executive officer, Eversheds Sutherland
Staying relevant
‘You do look at partnership models and think, what do law firms need to do to stay relevant to clients? To stay relevant, we are evolving from predominantly using lawyers to provide legal services into a business that is a professional services firm with law at its core.’
Alastair Morrison, head of client strategy, Pinsent Masons
Bye bye boomers
‘We’ll see the rise of Millennial leaders. The next decade will be even more defined by that. The next ten years we’ll lose the “OK boomers” from leadership and they’ll be replaced by a new generation.’
Simon Harper, co-founder, Lawyers On Demand
People business
‘Crystal ball-gazing into the next ten years is pretty difficult. We know change is going to happen and the pace of change will never be slower than it is today. A few things have changed from how we were working even five years ago. Tech has altered considerably the way we work, but it hasn’t replaced people the way we thought it might. Juniors and paralegals, some of whose tasks we were worried would fall prey to tech, are still very much being employed and are important parts of the overall team.’
David Patient, managing partner, Travers Smith